[Abstract]

This study analyzes Myanmar’s China policy since the military took power in 1988 and argues that Myanmar has actually hedged against the high risk of its heavy reliance on China. Through a new formulated analytical framework based on external risks and strategic preference, this study investigates why and how Myanmar hedged against China. It finds that Myanmar’s cautiously varying policy has been motivated by the rising risks imposed by China and the Burmese leaders’ conciliatory preference for adopting less coercive measures to

respond to external threats. In practice, Myanmar has actively engaged with China with the aim of maximizing benefits, whereas it has also made great efforts to ensure against over-dependence on China. In turn, this study predicts that the military regime established after the coup in February 2021 would move closer to China, while simultaneously resisting Chinese dominance.

Key words: Myanmar, China, United States, hedging, coup.